In an insightful interview broadcast by Noyan Tapan, host Gayane Arakelyan brought political analyst and Media Analytical Center Director Eduard Ayvazyan into conversation following Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s address to the National Assembly. The dialogue centered on Pashinyan’s declaration of a “Fourth Republic,” proposed constitutional overhauls, and Armenia’s delicate balancing act amid shifting global alliances.
The Genesis of a “Fourth Republic”
During his parliamentary speech presenting the government’s five-year program, Prime Minister Pashinyan asserted that the Fourth Republic has become a reality, stressing that a new constitution must be enacted without reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence. According to Pashinyan, voters endorsed this shift away from the legacy of the Karabakh movement during the last elections.
Evaluating this historical framing, Ayvazyan pointed out the complexities of state succession:
“It is important to start with the fact that the First Republic was established in 1918… In my view, we should return to being the direct successor of the First Republic. However, Pashinyan likely promotes the concept of a Fourth Republic to avoid potential territorial claims from neighbors.”
Addressing whether electoral victory equals a constitutional mandate, Ayvazyan emphasized that legal mechanics require a formal referendum. “Giving him votes does not automatically mean the public will cast positive votes in a constitutional referendum,” he noted.
EU Ambitions, Border Delimitation, and Security Dilemmas
The discussion turned to the structural drivers behind removing references to the Independence Declaration and proceeding with border delimitation based on the Alma-Ata Declaration. Ayvazyan connected these domestic shifts directly to Armenia’s foreign policy pivot toward European integration.
“If Pashinyan announces that Armenia is applying for EU membership, these constitutional changes are a logical continuation… Armenia must meet international legal standards and hold no territorial claims against neighbors, so that in the event of aggression, the international community recognizes a violation of sovereign territory.”
When questioned on whether international law provides a sufficient safety net against potential aggression from Baku, Ayvazyan acknowledged the fragility of global norms while framing adherence to them as a strategic necessity:
“International law is unfortunately disrupted today… However, if you are an ally of the United States and the European Union, international law must be paramount. Following international law is Armenia’s primary opportunity to avoid further territorial losses.”
Shifting Alliances in the Middle East and Beyond
The broadcast also addressed broader regional developments, including growing ties between Azerbaijan and Central Asian states, tensions between Israel and Turkey in Syria, and proposed trade corridors.
On the topic of weaponizing historical trauma, Ayvazyan concurred with concerns regarding third-party motivations in recognizing historical events, emphasizing that Armenia must pragmatically distinguish between genuine democratic recognition and geopolitical leverage.
Regarding economic pressures on neighboring Iran and potential impacts on Armenian energy imports, Ayvazyan expressed cautious optimism. He observed that international partners interested in Armenia’s stability would likely accommodate vital energy arrangements.
Concluding the interview hosted by Noyan Tapan, Ayvazyan underscored that Armenia’s European path remains heavily influenced by external geopolitical realities, including the outcome of the war in Ukraine and regional stability.
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