In a comprehensive broadcast hosted by the media platform Noyan Tapan, prominent Ukrainian political analyst Vitaly Portnikov delivered a piercing assessment of the geopolitical shifts shaking the post-Soviet space. Speaking from Kyiv, Portnikov connected the current political climate in Armenia directly to Ukraine’s ongoing defensive struggle, framing both nations’ challenges as a shared resistance against a resurgent Russian imperial project.
The 2013 Parallel: Blackmail and Broken Sovereignty
Responding to recent Kremlin rhetoric warning Armenia that its drive toward European integration could mirror the “Ukraine scenario,” Portnikov argued that Armenia has actually been operating under the Ukrainian paradigm since 2013. He recalled the pivotal moment when Vladimir Putin simultaneously pressured Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to abandon their respective European Union Association Agreements.
While both Kyiv and Yerevan maintained that EU alignment did not conflict with their existing ties or military bases with Russia, the Kremlin resorted to direct threats. Portnikov noted:
“I think Putin directly threatened the then-president of Armenia with the loss of control over the Azerbaijani regions around Nagorno-Karabakh, and possibly over the territory of the self-proclaimed republic itself. Putin perfectly understood that such a loss would jeopardize Sargsyan’s political career.”
The long-term consequences of this coercion delayed both nations’ natural trajectories but could not halt them. Yanukovych was ousted within months, while Sargsyan lost power four years later. According to Portnikov, the forced pivot away from the West systematically weakened Armenia, intensified domestic corruption, heightened Russian interference, and ultimately paved the way for the Second Karabakh War—a sequence echoing Ukraine’s entry into military conflict with Russia in 2014.
From Soviet Union to Russian Empire
A central theme of Portnikov’s analysis is that Moscow is not attempting to reconstruct the Soviet Union, but rather the pre-1917 Russian Empire. While the USSR formally recognized distinct national republics and languages under the guise of proletarian internationalism, modern Moscow actively denies the right of neighboring peoples to exist as distinct identities.
Portnikov painted a grim picture of what Russian subjugation would look like today:
Administrative Absorption: Countries like Ukraine or Belarus would be annexed directly as standard administrative regions (oblasts) of Russia.
Loss of Autonomy: Armenia would be stripped of its statehood and reduced to an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation, akin to Tatarstan.
Cultural Erosion: National identities would be dismantled, characterized by the absence of a presidency, the erasure of real national rights, and the non-mandatory study of the native language in schools.
This assimilation strategy, Portnikov noted, is already visible within Russia itself, where indigenous populations like the Tatars, Chuvash, and Chechens are seeing their cultural and linguistic rights systematically diminished.
Ukraine as the Regional Shield
According to the analyst, the Kremlin’s grand strategy to fully absorb the former Soviet republics by 2030 was derailed exclusively because Russia became bogged down in its war against Ukraine.
The depletion of Russian resources has inadvertently created a window of security for the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Due to Moscow’s overextended capabilities, Russian troops were quickly withdrawn from Kazakhstan, and peacekeepers were forced to exit Karabakh.
“The true guarantee of security for the region is not geopolitical alliances, but the paralysis of Russian capabilities in Ukraine. Ukrainians are quite literally saving former Soviet republics from Russian chauvinism with their bodies and their resistance.”
While Moscow historically exploited frozen conflicts to trap regional actors like Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan in geopolitical stalemates, its diminished leverage has shifted the balance. This weakness has allowed regional powers like Turkey and Azerbaijan the luxury of forging stronger alliances without immediate fear of Russian retaliation.
A Paradigm Shift in Armenian Sentiment
Reflecting on recent Armenian elections, Portnikov observed that while the Kremlin attempted to utilize its standard playbook—deploying financial capital and pro-Russian oligarchs to trigger instability—the strategy failed to yield a pro-Moscow victory. Instead, it solidified a profound shift in public consciousness.
Portnikov categorized the current Armenian electorate into two primary camps, neither of which views Russia as a partner:
1. The Distancing Camp: Citizens who believe Armenia must decouple from Russian-led structures as quickly and effectively as possible.
2. The Cautious Camp: Citizens who favor a measured approach, fearing that open confrontation could provoke vindictive destabilization from Moscow.
“There are no longer people who seriously believe that trust-based, friendly relations can be built with Russia,” Portnikov stated, emphasizing that Moscow views the Armenian population strictly as a geopolitical tool rather than a sovereign entity. He questioned the logic of Armenia’s continued presence in Moscow-led blocs like the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the CSTO, describing Armenia’s membership as an unnatural “enclave” born entirely out of historical blackmail rather than organic economic or geographic synergy.
Looking Toward a European Horizon
The interview coincided with a historic milestone: the formal opening of EU accession negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova in Luxembourg. Portnikov expressed optimism that a successful European path for Ukraine would eventually pave the way for the South Caucasus.
To achieve a peaceful and prosperous South Caucasus with open economic corridors, Portnikov concluded that the nations of the region must collectively reject external manipulation, move past heavily exploited pages of historical trauma, and recognize that lasting security lies in democratic integration.