In a rapidly shifting global landscape where regional alliances are often dictated by energy corridors and security imperatives, the South Caucasus remains a complex theater of historical tensions and emerging strategic partnerships. In a recent in-depth interview hosted by Noyan Tapan, Eduard Ayvazyan, a prominent political analyst and director of a media analytical center, provided a comprehensive examination of the multifaceted relationships between Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and the overarching influence of regional powers.
Speaking via video link from Javakhk, Ayvazyan offered a perspective rooted in the evolving diplomatic ties that have defined the region since the 1990s. He noted a significant shift in Armenian-Georgian relations following the 2018 revolution, emphasizing that current leadership has moved toward a policy of mutual recognition and territorial integrity.
A New Chapter in Armenian-Georgian Diplomacy
Ayvazyan highlighted the pivotal nature of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s early state visits to Georgia and Javakhk. These visits, he argued, signaled a departure from the tensions of the past. “Pashinyan made very important and serious statements that there is no problem for the territorial integrity of Georgia from Javakhk,” Ayvazyan remarked, noting that this clarity helped alleviate long-standing anxieties.
The analyst further pointed out that Armenia’s recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity has paradoxically strengthened its bond with Georgia. By declaring that Armenia has no territorial claims against any of its neighbors, the government has reduced friction in Javakhk, leading to what Ayvazyan described as a “positive shift” in the regional atmosphere.
The Strategic Weight of Georgia
The discussion on Noyan Tapan also delved into the strategic defense cooperation between Armenia and Georgia. While acknowledging recent political declarations and visits by defense ministers, Ayvazyan remained cautious about the immediate “tangible” results on the ground. However, he pointed to the logistical importance of Georgia as a transit route, specifically mentioning the passage of French military equipment, including Caesar self-propelled howitzers, to Armenia.
“I can only assume that such things are happening,” Ayvazyan stated, regarding the transit of defense technology through Georgian territory, despite protests from Azerbaijan. This logistical cooperation underscores a burgeoning strategic relationship that Ayvazyan believes is reinforced by Armenia’s pivot toward European integration—a path Georgia has long navigated.
The Shadow of Regional Powers
A central theme of the interview was the influence of the three regional “giants”: Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Ayvazyan characterized Russia as a formidable regional power that has lost its status as a global superpower to the U.S. and China but remains a critical actor in the South Caucasus.
Despite Georgia’s official stance against Russian occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Ayvazyan observed a nuanced balancing act in Tbilisi. “We see that very deep trade is taking place between Russia and Georgia, which did not exist before,” he noted, highlighting that while Georgia maintains its Euro-Atlantic aspirations—signified by the EU flags flying alongside Georgian ones in places like Javakhk—it also seeks to manage the immediate economic and security threats posed by its northern neighbor.
Turkey’s Economic and Strategic Footprint
The influence of Turkey in the region was described as “immense,” particularly within the Georgian economy. Ayvazyan traced this influence back to the opening of the borders in the 1990s and the subsequent development of “mega-projects” like the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
He suggested that Turkey has consistently aimed to weaken Russian influence in Georgia, a strategy that peaked during the Saakashvili era. Today, while Azerbaijan and Turkey maintain a deeply entrenched strategic partnership often aimed at containing regional rivals, the dynamics are shifting as Armenia seeks to normalize relations with both Ankara and Baku.
Conclusion: A Search for Sovereignty
As the South Caucasus edges closer to a potential peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the role of Georgia as a stabilizer and a bridge to the West becomes increasingly vital. Ayvazyan’s analysis on Noyan Tapan suggests that for the “small” nations of the South Caucasus—Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan—the path forward is a delicate dance between preserving national independence and navigating the competing interests of neighboring empires.
In the words of Ayvazyan, the regional players are all “concerned about maintaining their independence,” a shared goal that may yet provide the foundation for a more stable and integrated South Caucasus.