In a recent broadcast of Noyan Tapan, Turkologist Nelli Minasyan, Head of Department at the Institute for Armenian Studies of Yerevan State University, provided a meticulous deconstruction of the shifting geopolitical sands in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions—ranging from the war in Gaza to the potential for a wider conflict involving Iran—Minasyan explored the intricate, and often misunderstood, symbiotic relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The conversation opened with the specter of a broader Middle Eastern conflagration. Minasyan highlighted Turkey’s extreme sensitivity to regional instability, noting that the Turkish leadership has been active in its diplomacy to prevent the “fire” of current conflicts from engulfing the entire region. According to the guest, Turkey’s cautious stance is driven by two existential concerns: security and energy.
“If that fire spreads through the region, it will hardly be possible to extinguish it,” Minasyan observed, echoing a sentiment often heard from Ankara. She specifically identified the Kurdish factor as a “red line” for Turkey, particularly the possibility of Kurdish groups being utilized for ground operations within Iranian territory—a scenario Ankara is working feverishly to prevent through internal reconciliation efforts.
The Energy Trap and the Israel Friction
Despite President Erdogan’s sharp rhetoric against Israel, which he has described as conducting a “war of survival” for Prime Minister Netanyahu at the expense of billions, Minasyan argued that Turkey is currently operating from a position of vulnerability. The nation is grappling with an energy crisis, having already dipped into its reserves to mitigate the impact of disrupted Iranian supplies and to support the flailing lira.
Regarding the theory that Turkey could be the “next target” after Iran, Minasyan remained skeptical of a short-term escalation. She pointed to Turkey’s NATO membership as a significant deterrent, noting that any direct conflict between Israel and Turkey would necessitate a radical shift in the global security architecture.
Deconstructing the Turkey-Azerbaijan Axis
One of the most compelling segments of the interview focused on the power dynamics between Ankara and Baku. While the “One Nation, Two States” slogan suggests a seamless union, Minasyan characterized Azerbaijan as a strategic pillar within a much broader Turkish vision.
“Azerbaijan is part of the Turkish strategy,” Minasyan explained, citing Ankara’s post-Soviet goal of using Baku as a bridge to Central Asia and as a vital link in its ambition to become a global energy hub through projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
She challenged the popular notion that Turkey is subservient to Azerbaijani interests or that Baku dictates Ankara’s foreign policy. While Azerbaijan’s SOCAR has invested roughly $18 billion in Turkey, Minasyan pointed out that Turkish investments in Azerbaijan are even higher, totaling approximately $19 billion. This economic parity suggests a relationship of mutual interest rather than one-sided dependency.
The Armenian Question: A Geopolitical Tool?
Finally, Minasyan touched upon the stalled normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations. She suggested that while Azerbaijan is often cited as the primary obstacle to opening the border, the issue is far more complex.
“Armenian-Turkish relations are part of geopolitical processes,” Minasyan told the Noyan Tapan host, implying that the “Azerbaijani factor” is frequently used by Ankara as a convenient tactical shield. In her view, the current closeness of the Aliyev and Erdogan administrations is deeply personal, yet it remains anchored in a pragmatic, shifting strategy where Turkey—as a “deep, serious state”—continually re-evaluates its priorities in an increasingly volatile world.